Qom and Tehran

More info on Rafsanjani's probable role going forward. It appears that he's obeying the classical strategic dictum: ignore the prince, go after the king. The necessary move is to realign the oligarchy that runs the country, and then find ways to open up to the outside world after the manner of China.

Reports from the BBC also indicate that the Revolutionary Guards hierarchy understands the fluid nature of the current political solution in Iran, and are searching for ways to do a kind turn for Westerners in preparation for a possible realignment.

So, as things look worse in the near term, particularly at street level, it looks like there are some positive indicators for the long run.

Rafsanjani's Long Game

Persianwiki, as filtered through Andrew Sullivan, has a post on the importance of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been working behind the scenes slowly but surely. This is what is meant by subtlety.

Courage in the Face of Death, Part 2

From the Huffington Post, we have another letter from the author of the previous post, in memory of Neda, the 24 year old engineering student who was killed yesterday:

8:53 PM ET -- "Sister, have a short sleep, your last dream be sweet." Yesterday we printed a touching letter from an Iranian woman that began with these ominous lines: "I will participate in the demonstrations tomorrow. Maybe they will turn violent. Maybe I will be one of the people who is going to get killed..."

Tonight, she posted a second letter, passed along and translated by two readers. She writes about her "sister" in this cause who was killed today, referring to Neda.

Yesterday I wrote a note, with the subject line "tomorrow is a great day perhaps tomorrow I'll be killed." I'm here to let you know I'm alive but my sister was killed...


I'm here to tell you my sister died while in her father's hands
I'm here to tell you my sister had big dreams...
I'm here to tell you my sister who died was a decent person... and like me yearned for a day when her hair would be swept by the wind... and like me read "Forough" [Forough Farrokhzad]... and longed to live free and equal... and she longed to hold her head up and announce, "I'm Iranian"... and she longed to one day fall in love to a man with a shaggy hair... and she longed for a daughter to braid her hair and sing lullaby by her crib...

my sister died from not having life... my sister died as injustice has no end... my sister died since she loved life too much... and my sister died since she lovingly cared for people...

my loving sister, I wish you had closed your eyes when your time had come... the very end of your last glance burns my soul....

sister have a short sleep. your last dream be sweet.

Courage in the Face of Death

Here is what is endearing about the human race: such courage and boundless joy in the face of death, the unconquerable last inch of the soul...

“I will participate in the demonstrations tomorrow. Maybe they will turn violent. Maybe I will be one of the people who is going to get killed. I’m listening to all my favorite music. I even want to dance to a few songs. I always wanted to have very narrow eyebrows. Yes, maybe I will go to the salon before I go tomorrow! There are a few great movie scenes that I also have to see. I should drop by the library, too. It’s worth to read the poems of Forough and Shamloo again. All family pictures have to be reviewed, too. I have to call my friends as well to say goodbye. All I have are two bookshelves which I told my family who should receive them. I’m two units away from getting my bachelors degree but who cares about that. My mind is very chaotic. I wrote these random sentences for the next generation so they know we were not just emotional and under peer pressure. So they know that we did everything we could to create a better future for them. So they know that our ancestors surrendered to Arabs and Mongols but did not surrender to despotism. This note is dedicated to tomorrow’s children…” - an Iranian blogger, with more courage than most of us will ever know.

"Tomorrow there will be blood"

Pulled from a number of disturbing updates in the wake of Khamenei's unyielding speech earlier today, as collected by the Huffington Post:

First, Roger Cohen of the NYT, speaking with a protester

Iran has sought independence and some form of democracy for over a century. It now has the former but this election has clarified, for an overwhelmingly young population, the Islamic Republic's utter denial of the latter.

The feeling in the crowd seems to be: today or never, all together and heave!

A man holds his mobile phone up to me: footage of a man with his head blown off last Monday. A man, 28, whispers: "The government will use more violence, but some of us have to make the sacrifice."

Another whisper: "Where are you from?" When I say the United States, he says: "Please give our regards to freedom."

And, an unnamed female photojournalist interviewed by Parvez Sharma

Like many others, she is enraged by the "khutba" (Friday sermon) of the Ayatollah Khamenei which will now open the doors for a Tiananmen in Tehran. Saturday will likely be the bloodiest day so far, if the brave crowds decide to come out. Another friend from Tehran cried on the phone, after he had been to Tehran University to pray and hear the Ayatollah's sermon. His last words to me before the mobile phone connection was cut off were: "Tomorrow there will be blood."

And finally, from Twitter: "Use Ghandi method."